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In this note we assess various structural arguments to support the case for a multi-year period of European equity outperformance. These include valuations, allocations, capital flows, treasury and central bank policy, AI, private equity and the Russo-Ukrainian war. European equities are experiencing their seventh best year versus US equities since 1969. Despite the AI euphoria, US underperformance has been significant…

Europe outperformed the US by 18% in the first half of the year. We expect this outperformance to continue over a multi-year period The fall in the dollar is masking weakness in US equity indices Liquidity is likely to become more negative for US asset prices soon The combination of record valuations, record allocations and weakening liquidity is usually bearish…

Investors are preoccupied with European political risk, but we see greater risks in the US equity market US equity underperformance may finally be imminent Upcoming changes to Bank of Japan policy may have a large impact on global markets European politics Emmanuel Macron has surprised investors and called a general election. These are legislative elections and are not for the…